For decades, rodeo has trusted the same wives’ tale: Whatever is sitting fifth in the world standings when the Cheyenne Frontier Days wraps up is what it will take to make the NFR.

But what does that actually mean? Does the team sitting fifth have enough won to coast into December, or is the fifth-place money simply a good estimate of what it will ultimately take to finish No. 15?

The answer has always been a little bit of both.

When we first broke down the old wives’ tale in 2022, three-time World Champion Tee Woolman explained that, after years of watching the standings, cowboys noticed the money won by No. 5 after Cheyenne was usually close to the eventual NFR cutoff.

“I don’t know if it’s halfway there or what, but usually whatever is fifth after Cheyenne is what it takes to make the Finals,” Woolman said in 2022. “It could be a touch less or a touch more.”

Restated as math, fifth-place earnings the week after Cheyenne should land close to 15th-place earnings at the end of the regular season, give or take. But as recent history has it, a team sitting fifth probably shouldn’t turn out just yet.

The 2024 season was a pretty good year for the rule.

After Cheyenne, Jake Smith and Douglas Rich were fifth in the world standings with $98,865.71 each. When the regular season ended, the actual cutoff came in $6,202.84 higher on the head side and $10,046.56 higher on the heel side with Derrick Begay at 15th on the head side with $105,068.55 and Paul Eaves 15th in the heeling with $108,912.27.

The old rule wasn’t exact, but it wasn’t far off, either. A guy with fifth-place money after Cheyenne still needed to keep winning, but he certainly didn’t need to set the world on fire over the final two months.

As for Smith and Rich, the men sitting fifth after Cheyenne? They were safe. Smith and Rich both qualified for the NFR that year No. 7 and 6 in the world standings.

Then came 2025.

Tyler Wade and Wesley Thorp were fifth after Cheyenne with $85,828.19 each. By the end of the regular season, however, it took Lightning Aguilera’s $116,864.30 to make the Finals heading and Jonathan Torres’ $111,680 to make it heeling.

The rule missed by $31,036.11 on the head side and $25,851.81 on the heel side. Put another way, fifth-place money after Cheyenne fell 36% short of the final heading cutoff and 30% short of the heeling cutoff. But, the men sitting fifth after Cheyenne, World Champs Wade and Thorp, were locked in, qualifying for Vegas eighth in the world.

Why is the rule missing?

The rule assumes Cheyenne represents roughly the halfway point of the season’s money. It still falls in the same week of July, but it may no longer represent the same share of the money available. Clay Tryan called that possibility four years ago.

“The rodeos pay so much better at the end than they used to,” Tryan said in 2022. “It always took $60-$70,000, but all it takes is the guy at No. 14 or No. 15 to win Puyallup or Pendleton, and things get more interesting.”

Tryan nailed it: The bigger rodeos at the end of the season increased their payout. In 2022, the Ellensburg Rodeo—a top hit in the Northwest each September—had a purse of $51,000 in the team roping. In 2025, the team roping purse was $70,000, and in 2026 it will have a purse of $80,000. The coveted Pendleton Round-Up had a team roping purse of $80,000 in 2022 which increased to $113,000 (the same purse for 2026).

And let’s not forget the make-or-break PRCA Playoff Series, which includes the Puyallup Rodeo in early September and the Governor’s Cup the final weekend of the season. With the addition of Sioux Falls, there’s now a purse of $333,334 up for grabs in the team roping at the season’s close, and it’s only available to a select few teams. All of this to say, the NFR cutoff has climbed accordingly.

In 2023, Luke Brown finished No. 15 in the heading with $97,752, while Tyler Worley grabbed the final spot on the heel side with $93,983. By 2025, those numbers had climbed to $116,864.30 and $111,680, respectively.

That’s an increase of $19,112.30 on the head side and $17,697 on the heel side in two seasons. Both cutoffs have grown by an average of about 9% per year.

For another comparison, the No. 15 spot on the head side cost Jake Cooper $73,190.95 in 2019. Cheyenne hasn’t moved on the calendar. The amount of money still left to win after it has.

So, what does it take in 2026?

After Cheyenne in 2026, Aguilera is fifth in the heading with $105,931.27, while Ross Ashford is fifth on the heel side with $98,538.37.

Aguilera already has more won than it took to make the Finals heading in 2023 and 2024, but he remains $10,933.03 short of the 2025 cutoff.

Ashford is ahead of the 2023 heeling cutoff, but he is $10,373.90 short of the 2024 mark and $13,141.63 behind what it took in 2025.

If the cutoffs continue growing at that rough 9% per year, it would take approximately $127,000 to qualify on the head side and $122,000 heeling in 2026. That’s only a projection, and two seasons aren’t enough to establish a new rodeo rule of thumb. But both estimates land roughly $20,000 beyond where the old Cheyenne rule points.

There is a neat irony in the heading column, too. Aguilera is this year’s No. 5. He was also last year’s No. 15—the $116,864.30 that showed just how far the old rule could miss was his. But that doesn’t mean the old wives’ tale is wrong; it’s just shifted.

As a predictor of the final NFR cutoff, fifth-place money after Cheyenne has become less reliable. In 2024, it came reasonably close. In 2025, it wasn’t close at all. As a predictor of who will make the Finals, however, the rule has held up.

Smith and Rich were fifth after Cheyenne in 2024, and both qualified for the NFR. Wade and Thorp were fifth after Cheyenne in 2025, and they also qualified comfortably. In the two completed recent seasons, every guy sitting fifth after Cheyenne went on to make the Finals—even when the money he had at that point wasn’t ultimately enough.

If the old wives’ tale is true, Aguilera and Ashford have the Finals made. If the last two years have taught us anything, though, it’s that they shouldn’t head home and kick their feet up just yet.

Martin Lucero’s advice from the original 2022 analysis may be more useful than any exact number.

“You don’t have to win first every time to make the Finals,” Lucero said. “You could make good runs, maintain your horse, maintain your sanity and still make the Finals.”

The distinction is that fifth-place money may no longer mean a cowboy can quit rodeoing. It means he is far enough ahead—and winning consistently enough—that he is in a strong position to keep pace as the cutoff climbs. That is the version of the rule Aguilera and Ashford will test in 2026. The money they have won may not be enough on its own, but history still says the men sitting fifth after Cheyenne are safe.