As the 2025 NFR heads into Round 10, the PRCA team roping world-title race has narrowed to a handful of realistic scenarios—and one clear position of control.
Kolton Schmidt and Jonathan Torres enter the final night leading the average on eight head and, more importantly, holding the strongest leverage in both the world standings and the aggregate race. While several teams remain mathematically alive, Schmidt and Torres largely dictate how this race will end.
Here’s what has to happen—and what doesn’t.
Schmidt and Torres are Guaranteed Average Money
One key detail simplifies the entire discussion: Schmidt and Torres cannot fall lower than fourth in the average, regardless of what happens in Round 10.
That guarantees them $44,356.39 per man in aggregate money before they run their final steer. There is no scenario in which they fall out of the average or drop below that payout.
From there, everything hinges on whether they protect the average win—not whether they chase a go-round check.
For Schmidt, his path is relatively straightforward. If Schmidt and Torres maintain their position atop the average, Schmidt does not need to place in the go-round to secure the world title. Even if another team wins Round 10 outright, holding the average win keeps Schmidt just ahead of the strongest challengers. If Schmidt wins the average, the heading title is effectively locked.
Torres’ situation on the heel side is similar—but slightly tighter.
If Schmidt and Torres win the average but Torres earns no round money, there is a narrow scenario in which Junior Nogueira could overtake him—specifically if Kaleb Driggers and Nogueira win the round and climb to second in the average.
Because of that, Torres would benefit from picking up any go-round money to eliminate doubt. Still, the burden remains on the challengers.
Torres does not need to win the round—but if Driggers and Nogueira have a monster night, a small check makes the difference between safe and sweating.
The Challengers: Who Needs Help—and How Much
Driggers and Nogueira present the biggest threat if things unravel. They have the highest upside and the cleanest path to the top, but it requires two things:
- Schmidt and Torres must lose control of the average, and
- Driggers and Nogueira must capitalize with a big night in both the round and the aggregate.
Clint Summers and Jade Corkill remain mathematically alive, but their path is narrower. They need Schmidt and Torres to slide in the average and must then stack significant money in both the round and the aggregate to close the gap.
Andrew Ward and Jake Long are still on the board, but they need chaos across the leaderboard—and help from multiple teams—to break their way. They can get above Schmidt and Torres, but only if:
- Schmidt and Torres have a bad run and lose the average, and
- Ward and Long win the average and do very well in the round, and
- They still out-earn Driggers and Nogueira and Summers and Corkill on the night.
The Bottom Line Heading Into Round 10
Schmidt and Torres don’t need heroics. They don’t need to chase checks. They don’t need to win the round. They simply need to do what they’ve done all week: make a solid run and protect their position in the average. If they do that, the world titles are theirs. If they don’t, the door opens—and Driggers and Nogueira are the ones most ready to walk through it.
