Tonight, Dec. 16, world champions will be crowned after Round 10 of the 2023 NFR. Tyler Wade and Wesley Thorp enter the final round No. 1 in the world and as the projected world champs, but they aren’t the only team with a chance at a gold buckle.

Here’s what would have to happen, in terms of the average, for the top five teams in the aggregate to win the world.

Clint Summers & Jake Long: $234,998.84, $248,500.08

Summers and Long have had an impressive NFR, jumping from 13th and tenth to second in the world. Summers is $22,541.34 behind Wade, and Long is $26,267.37 behind Thorp. Going into Round 10, they’re fifth in average with a 37.6 on seven steers. If they were to finish fifth in the average, they’d both take home $26,744 which would put them at $261,742.84 and $257,244.08, which wouldn’t be enough to pass Wade and Thorp if they catch tonight. If every team ahead of them were to miss tonight, Summers and Long could jump to second in the average for a cool $63,889 a man. That would put them at $298.887.84 and $312,389.08 (not including what they could potentially win the round). Ultimately, they would need the No. 1 team to miss tonight and win no better than fourth in the aggregate. Summers and Long could also fall in the average, though; if they were to miss in the tenth round, they could drop to ninth in the average.

Andrew Ward & Buddy Hawkins: $219,856.02 each

Ward and Hawkins are coming into Round 10 third in the world. Ward is $37,684.16 behind Wade, and Hawkins is $54,911.43 behind Thorp. They are currently fourth in the aggregate with a 55 on eight head. Fourth in the average pays $37,145 a man, and if they can hold their aggregate spot they would walk away with $257,001.02. Ward and Hawkins could potentially jump to first in the average if the top three teams were to miss tonight. If they were to jump to first, they’d take home $78,747 a man, putting them at $298,603.02. In this scenario, Ward would need Wade and Thorp to win no higher than fourth in the average, BUT Hawkins would need them to win no higher than sixth to jump Thorp in the world standings. The lowest they could drop in the average if they were to miss tonight is sixth.

Tyler Wade & Wesley Thorp: $257,540.18, $274,767.45

Wade and Thorp enter Round 10 No. 1 in the world. They are also third in the average with a 53.5 on eight steers. If they hold that spot, they’ll both pick up a $50,517 aggregate check for the average. Wade and Thorp are down just one steer heading into tonight, and they could potentially jump to first in the average if the two teams ahead of them were to miss tonight. On the other end of the spectrum, the lowest they could drop if they were to miss tonight is sixth in the average, which would still pick up a $19,315 check.

Luke Brown & Hunter Koch: $196,404.84

Brown and Koch are No. 6 in the world heading into the tenth round but second in the average with a 47 on eight head. Brown is $61,135.34 behind Wade, and Koch is $78362.61 behind Thorp. Brown and Koch can win the aggregate if the No. 1 team were to miss tonight. But the $78,747 for winning the average wouldn’t be enough on its own to pass Wade and Thorp, given the lowest they can fall is sixth in the average for $19,315 a man. They would need to win no less than second in the round to beat out Wade and Thorp in that scenario. If Brown and Koch were to miss tonight, they could drop to fifth in the aggregate.

Derrick Begay & Colter Todd: $185,425.34, $200,592.54

Begay and Todd are your current average leaders heading into Round 10 as the only team to catch every steer up to this point. They are 64.6 on nine steers. Begay enters the final round No. 10 in the world with $185,425.34, and Todd is No. 4 with $200,592.54. Begay is $72,114.84 behind Wade, and Todd is $74,174.91 behind Thorp. No. 1 in the average pays $78,747 a man. Wade and Thorp are guaranteed no lower than sixth in the average even if they miss tonight, and that $19,315 would be enough to keep them ahead of Begay and Todd when it’s all said and done, even if they win the aggregate. In this scenario, Begay and Todd essentially need to win the average and no lower than third in the round to have a chance.

*We know there are hundreds of scenarios that could play out and determine the world champions. These are just a few of the potential scenarios, regarding the average, that could play out and shake up the world standings.

World Standings